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Analysis of Wind Ramp Events Using PCA of 3D Tables of their Conditional Probabilities

Autoři: Heckenbergerová Jana | Musilek Petr | Janata Marek | Wang Jianhui

Rok: 2015

Druh publikace: článek ve sborníku

Název zdroje: Proceedings of the 2015 16th International Scientific Conference on Electric Power Engineering, EPE 2015

Název nakladatele: IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers)

Místo vydání: New York

Strana od-do: 158-162

Tituly:

Jazyk	Název	Abstrakt	Klíčová slova
cze	Analýza větrných ramp s využitím 3D tabulky podmíněných pravděpodobností na základě PCA	Příspěvek se zabývá analýzou větrných ramp s využitím 3D tabulky podmíněných pravděpodobností. Hodnoty ve 3D tabulce jsou vypočteny na základě analýzy hlavních komponent (PCA). Výsledky jsou verifikovány na dvou příkladových studiích.
eng	Analysis of Wind Ramp Events Using PCA of 3D Tables of their Conditional Probabilities	Wind is one of the fastest growing sources of renewable energy. However, its intermittency and stochastic nature often hamper integration of wind-generated energy in electric power networks. The most significant obstacles to efficient wind integration are the wind ramps, sudden changes of wind power output caused by dramatic changes in wind speed. Most ramp prediction methods derive future ramp estimates from forecast power series. This contribution suggests a different approach that would directly analyze wind power time series and other weather parameters to identify specific patterns and dependencies signaling approaching ramp events. In this paper, the 3D tables of ramp events' conditional probabilities are evaluated using principal component analysis. Two different datasets are analyzed. First one contains power production hourly collected from August 2011 to July 2012 on sample wind farm located close to Lethbridge, AB Canada. The other consists of total BPA wind power production in 2013 with 5 minute resolution. Frequency tables for the first three principal components are used to evaluate the conditional probability of a forthcoming wind ramp event. Utilization of resulting 3D tables for wind ramp event forecast is tested on the last quarter of the data. Advantage of proposed methodology compared to conventional methods is that numerical weather prediction (NWP) model producing wind forecasts is not required.	conditional probability; principal component analysis(PCA); wind power production; wind ramp event

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