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Analysis of Wind Speed and Power Time Series Preceding Wind Ramp Events
Authors: Heckenbergerová Jana | Musilek Petr | Marek Jaroslav
Year: 2014
Type of publication: článek ve sborníku
Name of source: Proceedings of the 2014 15th International Scientific Conference on Electric Power Engineering, EPE 2014
Publisher name: IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers)
Place: New York
Page from-to: 279-283
Titles:
Language Name Abstract Keywords
cze Analýza časových řad síly větru a větrné energie, které předchází větrné rampy Příspěvek prezentuje metodologii pro parametrickou analýzu časových řad, které předcházení prudkým změnám v produkci větrné energie. Zkoumané řady jsou standardizovány a poté se hledá specifická formace předcházející rampu. Příkladová studie používá roční data z větrné farmy umístěné v jižní Albertě, Kanada.
eng Analysis of Wind Speed and Power Time Series Preceding Wind Ramp Events Wind energy has become one of the fastest growing renewable sources during last few decades. Sudden changes in wind power output, called wind ramps, recently attracted great research interest in wind power forecasting community. Conventional ramp prediction methods derive future ramp estimates from power forecast series. We suggest to analyze real wind power series or other weather parameters, searching for specific patterns and dependencies indicating forthcoming wind ramp events.This paper presents a methodology for parametric analysis of time series preceding wind ramp events. The presented methodology is based on probabilistic data analysis. Sensitivity of the developed algorithm can be adjusted through the size of the time window defined before a ramp event. Power production and other weather data are standardized, averaged and then searched for specific patterns in the form of trend lines. The resulting methodology does not require the use of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model; this is a significant simplification compared to most conventional methods. The proposed methodology is tested using power production and wind speed data collected between August 2011 and July 2012 at a wind farm located in a wind-rich region of southern Alberta, Canada. Descriptive statistics; Probabilistic data analysis; Wind power; Wind ramp event; Wind speed

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